I’ve been studying Peak Oil and other energy related stuff for a while and I thought I’d post the following excerpt from the Energy Bulletin website along with my personal thoughts.
“All alternative energy sources—geothermal, solar, wind, etc.—produce only 3% of the energy supplied by oil. If oil demand rises by 2% while output remains flat, generation of alternative energy would have to expand 60% a year. That’s more than twice the rate of wind power, the fastest-growing alternative energy.” Full Story
Keeping this in mind, I find the hype around renewable and other alternate energy sources almost tragicomic. The excerpt above describes the situation in the US, but it’s really not much better in the EU either. Our demand for oil is growing while supply is not and there’s no way renewables can fill that gap. There hasn’t been any increase in global oil production since 2005. If you’re wondering why gasoline prices keep going up, you have your answer right there. The reason why there aren’t any shortages yet (in rich countries), is the fact that poorer countries can’t buy the more expensive oil anymore. They’re forced to cut their consumption that the rich can continue their happy motoring. This is happening now, and it’s getting worse every day. So when you fill up your gas tank, you’re filling it with the gas that could have powered some African countries’ tractors or power plants. Think about that.
However, this situation can’t go on forever. In the not so distant future the effects of Peak Oil will become visible in the developed countries aswell. When the worlds biggest oil producer, Russia, starts to decline, we can safely say the era of cheap oil has ended. And the sad fact is that we’re not ready for it. Not even close. Shortages in supply will get common and other problems will emerge from that.
So you ask, when will all of this happen? The obvious answer is that it’s already happening, but the real problems will start probably in 2008 and gradually get worse, assuming the oil production will keep declining or stay level. You see, even if it stays level, the growing consumption in exporting countries will make sure that the importers will face an involuntary cut in their imports. The so called net export problem is far more dangerous than actual production decline. For instance, after Great Britain’s oil production started to decline, it took only a few years until GB was a net importer instead of a net exporter. When the same happens to Russia, Saudi Arabia etc. we’re truly screwed. And it will happen. Well, actually it’s already happening. Saudi-Arabia’s exports are already crashing. And it’s only a matter of time when Russia faces the same situation. Probably this year or shortly after, we’ll see soon enough.
I may sound like a crackpot doomer to you but if you think of the root cause of the problem, exponential growth, you should be able to figure it out yourself. Here’s an excellent video about the subject. A real eye-opener.
